Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 11.292029 13.201644 15.289159 17.734392 20.513634 23.567633 27.170721
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.769946 10.216484 13.164446 16.950123 21.651449 27.264610 34.436748
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.642182 8.235003 11.636956 16.362067 22.678905 30.747313 41.732376
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.447516 7.114229 10.880772 16.471655 24.417213 35.138834 50.497141
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.498787 6.095180 10.019482 16.204303 25.483261 38.618092 58.273336
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.042550 5.704506 9.966684 17.029541 28.109588 44.416269 69.689498
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.582339 5.199437 9.628168 17.323505 29.909156 49.108088 79.832381
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.174066 4.692341 9.187312 17.357971 31.253648 53.168581 89.287754
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.844965 4.257994 8.789996 17.385245 32.544345 57.196153 98.933784
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.737559 4.234480 9.120111 18.704306 36.098443 65.069799 115.153725
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.588996 4.093854 9.202541 19.569256 38.926026 71.935418 130.176574
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.439288 3.918918 9.187098 20.236209 41.441863 78.431488 144.977948
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.218686 3.543590 8.726408 20.022256 42.399232 82.455248 156.130521
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.987632 3.087732 8.021693 19.229911 42.196391 84.448184 163.989182
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.808771 2.717392 7.438571 18.602754 42.232431 86.850084 172.708166
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.704667 2.522512 7.225270 18.736545 43.782600 92.125805 186.883046
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.594039 2.277176 6.845038 18.441605 44.412970 95.700873 198.162897
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.555608 2.242831 6.988620 19.366627 47.682319 104.539410 219.708055
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.496092 2.123427 6.888503 19.696052 49.689214 111.027621 237.166223
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.433406 1.974315 6.681200 19.734840 51.054169 116.321385 252.630947
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.378951 1.837233 6.482110 19.765434 52.395994 121.644152 268.436056
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.373594 1.884880 6.827988 21.239803 57.167905 134.281697 299.261432
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.353062 1.867000 6.974984 22.205780 60.828355 144.813507 326.407903